By Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer (eds.)

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Goldstein, M. (1997b), ‘Commentary: The causes and propagation of financial instability: lessons for policymakers’, in ‘Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy’, A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August, pp. 96–117. , Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C. (2000), Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. Gonzalez-Hermillosa, B. (1999), ‘Developing indicators to provide early warnings of banking crises’, Finance and Development, June, pp.

Demirgüc-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. (1998), ‘Financial liberalization and financial fragility’, International Monetary Fund Working Paper, No. 83. Edison, H. (2000), ‘Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system’, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. International Finance DiscussionPapers, July. 36 Financial Systems and Economic Development in the 21st Century Eichengreen, B. (1999), Toward a New International Financial Architecture, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.

From a Keynesian perspective advanced notably by Minsky (among others), there is no reason to expect that the mere provision of accurate and timely information about the changing state of “market fundamentals” in developing economies will prevent crisis by changing agents’ behaviors. In addition, these indicators themselves do not represent a sufficient means to prevent financial crisis in developing economies. Ironically, as agents develop confidence in the predictive capacity of crisis indicators, they may be more likely to engage in actions that increase the economy’s vulnerability to crisis.

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21st Century Keynesian Economics by Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer (eds.)
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